Must read update from Chris Days Ten To Follow this National Hunt season 2014/15
Ten To Follow this National Hunt season 2014/15
Update report and Cheltenham 2015 insight from our ten to follow analyst click to follow @Chrisday100 on twitter.
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A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the start of the 2014-15 Jumps season.
Here we stand on the cusp of another potentially brilliant Cheltenham Festival where reputations will be made and shattered over 4 days in the Gloucestershire countryside next week.
The purpose of this preview is to deal only with those horses involved in our Ten To follow and mentioned as Ante Post Cheltenham bets.
First up is Brother Brian, who apparently goes for The Pertemps Final over 3 miles, a trip he's yet to race over but which should prove well within his compass. He's been kept fresh for this since a third to Rock On Ruby at Cheltenham in December, a race he had no right to win on form, but his previous Kempton victory in a qualifier has been franked by wins in novice handicap chases for Royal Regatta and Saturday's Doncaster massacre over hurdles by fourth home, Call The Cops, trained by Nicky Henderson. He was there to be shot at in the Kempton race but never flinched and I cannot think of any logical reason why those behind should turn the form around at a track he showed holds no terrors for him when winning readily in April.
If he wasn't also engaged in The Coral Cup, I'd have him as a maximum each way bet but the day of race markets are competitive with additional place terms available and those should be taken advantage of once final declarations are known.
I've already recommended our next horse, Saphir Du Rheu, as a World Hurdle bet the week before he won The Cleeve and hopefully some of us took the double figures on offer and are now sitting on a contestant who goes into the race with a favorite's chance.
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| Cheltenham Preview 2015 |
Nichols has always maintained Saphir Du Rheu is a potential Gold Cup horse so his class should not be a hindrance and his owner, Andy Stewart, reckons he's improved a stone on his Cleeve win. If that's the case it'll take a good one to get past him and I'm pretty hopeful we'll be seeing a return on our investment on Thursday afternoon.
Sgt Reckless is our hope for The Arkle, the second race of a great week and clearly faces a mountain to climb if he is to overhaul one of the Irish bankers, Un De Sceaux. This horse has had an incredibly light campaign, being seen only once over fences when handing out a drubbing on the bridle to some reasonable horses at Uttoxeter in the Autumn. Flat bred and apparently able to work with any of Channon's horses at home, he revealed a slick jumping style and looks for all the world like a horse who's been crying out for fences.
He ran again in January when handing out a thrashing conceding weight to a 78 rated flat maiden at Lingfield conceding lumps of weight and clearly has loads of toe.
Last March he came into Cheltenham in a very light campaign and flew up the hill in The Supreme Novice to finish fourth before going on to fill the places at both Aintree and Punchestown. Given his easy preparation he could easily be lining up similar targets in the next couple of months.
The official reason for what seems an unorthodox preparation is that connections do not want to risk him on soft ground and there's surely huge improvement to come somewhere soon and Henrietta Knight, his jumping tutor, pioneered light build ups to the festival with Best Mate a decade or so ago.
The main form danger to the favourite looks to be Vibrato Valtat but I believe Sgt Reckless to be at least as classy and think current quotes around the 16-1 mark are fair but I'd possibly recommend waiting to see that the ground is suitable on the day before getting involved each way as the ground is obviously considered key.
With injuries to all our other horses, the only other chance we have is Taquin Du Seuil, who I recommended as a Gold Cup bet in the Autumn. He's been disappointing no doubt but did travel like his old self before fading in the straight behind Coneygree in The Denman Chase at Newbury last time.
He no longer has a Gold Cup entry but I believe he's going to go for the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase from close to top weight and, at his best, would have a leading chance. He's currently priced up as favorite, possibly on last year's JLT victory but more likely due to his trainer's record in these types of races and I couldn't recommend him as a bet as his odds are likely to halve before the off.
Calipto is a horse I fully expected to be lining up in Tuesday's Champion Hurdle with a comfortable Betfair Hurdle tucked away in his pocket by now but events on the day conspired against him and any number of horses held up off a crawl and, as a result, he remains tantalizingly handicapped for a fruitful Spring campaign.
At the festival he has two entries, one in Wednesday's Coral Cup, which I'd think of as unlikely and the other in The County Hurdle on Friday. Nichols has an excellent record in the latter and a fast pace on good ground on Cheltenham's Old course should give him plenty of time to stalk the leaders on the run between the final two hurdles and hopefully fulfill last season's as yet untapped promise.
At 10-1 NRNB, he is great value on the basis that he also has an entry in Saturday's Imperial Cup, for which he is a 9-1 chance. I can't pretend to have looked at Sandown's big race yet but, if he runs his race, it'll take a good one to beat him off his current rating. If he wins, he'll probably attempt the famous bonus for going on to win at Cheltenham, in which case he'll likely go off shorter than 5-1 and, if he gets beaten at the weekend, it's difficult to see him taking up any festival engagement and you'll get your money back.
Further down the line, he could be a Scottish Champion Hurdler and next year's Arkle horse for the champion trainer.
The final horse to discuss is our Ante Post Ryanair selection, Ma Filleule, who has been one of the best backed horses of the whole festival since her second to Balder Success in an Ascot Grade 1 a couple of weeks ago. My information on the day was that she'd need the run and she may well have done plus the ground will hopefully ride more like it did last Spring when she followed up a second to Holywell in a 3 mile handicap chase here with an impressive jumping performance under a big wight to win the Topham.
Going left handed also clearly suits better and I confidently expect her to reverse placings with her Ascot conqueror and go at least very close in the big race. Henderson seems unusually bullish and her owner was telling people to back her for this race at the Newbury meeting the week before her reappearance run.
If anyone took the 14-1, there's scope to back another and I'd recommend last year's 2 1/2 mile handicap chase winner, Ballynagour, who's been kept fresh for this and has big run in him under such conditions. There are big prices available, 20-1 NRNB or 25-1 without the concession, which are an insult to a horse who subsequently ran well in Graded company at Aintree and Punchestown.
Onwards to Cheltenham 2015
Big Thanks to Chris for his contribution for his #102FOLLOW this NH Season 2015.
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