Update from Chris days Ten to follow this national hunt season 2015/16

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Tue 08/12/2015

It’s fair to say that after a promising start our horses have struggled in the last month or so and the pattern has continued with the last couple of runners running satisfactorily but not troubling the judge where it matters.

First up was Saphir Du Rheu, sent off favourite for The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury before fading into fifth behind the very impressive winner, Smad Place. He travelled equally as well as the winner until entering the home straight but I can’t have the excuse that he found the weight concession too much as the winner was second top weight. He did make a mistake seven out and could have jumped a couple more fluently but, on the whole, I thought this was the most disappointing run of his career and Nicholls subsequently announced that he would go back over hurdles. When you consider he had conceded over a stone to Whisper when beating him at Ffos Las over hurdles two years ago there’s no doubt he’s top class on his day and I wouldn’t write him off for The World Hurdle before possibly going back over the larger obstacles at Aintree in April.

Our other runner, As De Mee, ran over a trip short of his best in a Grade 1 at Sandown over the weekend but, despite jumping and travelling well, he could only manage third to the very much improved Gary Moore trained Ar Mad. The distance of the race was never really going to suit him but he now looks to have the necessary experience to do some serious damage in a valuable handicap, possibly over Christmas or at the festival. Assuming he remains on 140, winning from that mark over 20 – 24 furlongs should prove a formality and his next race is awaited with much interest.

A general comment I would make about recent runners from the Nicholls stable is that they may not have been running right up to their best but I would bet he’ll sort that out shortly and expect each of these two to be paying their way with the number 1 in their form before too long.

Looking ahead, Champagne West looks like making his return from injury at Cheltenham on Saturday and is one of very few with scope to improve on his current mark in The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and Flintham, who ran a shocker at Exeter first time, bids to get back to form over hurdles this week.

Let’s hope for a winner to send us into the festive season with confidence.

Sun 13/12/2015 

Three horses from our list have run in the last week, each with varying results.

First to run was Flintham, a horse whose stable have high hopes for him over a distance of ground in soft ground novice chases, who contested a 3 mile hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. The race was run at a muddling pace, Flintham in the main jumped adequately but was outpaced when the pace quickened and dropped right out in the closing stages as expected. The thing is this race should have helped rebuild his confidence after a disappointing fencing debut and his next run will define his season. If he runs well then he could be back on track but a poor run might well curtail his racecourse appearances until next Autumn.

The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, one of the season’s best 2 ½ mile handicap chases, was chosen by the Hobbs stable for the comeback run of Champagne West and, while he never really looked like reeling in his stablemate and all the way winner, Village Vic, ran a blinder to finish second. He won twice over the track last season before injuring himself and this was obviously very promising with an eye to the future, as were his trainer’s comments involving races like Cheltenham’s Grade 1 Ryanair Chase. Clearly he’ll need to improve but he ought to be able to win a decent handicap from his revised mark if that ambition is to be realised.

Our third runner this week, Anibale Fly, a good bumper horse from last season, made his hurdling debut in a 28 runner 2 mile novice at Navan today and, although the market indicated he was ready, the stable have been operating at a strike rate below 5% in recent times so to win this was a very encouraging debut. Admittedly the favourite of Willie Mullins may have run below par and the places were filled by outsiders but he travelled well, jumped reasonably and found plenty from the last over a trip likely to prove a fair bit short of his best. His next race is eagerly anticipated but I wouldn’t mind betting he heads to the spring festivals as one of JP’s main hopes for novice honours.

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