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| National Hunt season 2015/16 |
Here at the Hit&Miss sports blog we are delighted to Introduce
Racing enthusiast
Chris Day @Chrisday100
Click on name and follow
Can be used as potential ante-post betting and to add to your horseracing alerts the new season ahead as will
The Hit&Miss Sports blog as we follow all ten to follow as the season progresses
Big thanks to chris for his hard work and research in compiling his ten to follow
this national hunt season.
ANIBALE FLY
The last couple of seasons have seen Tony Martin resurrect his reputation as a man to be feared with his runners in Britain with major handicap successes and the way he appears every Punchestown and Fairyhouse festival with horses apparently with stones in hand should be remembered next spring when we come to study the big handicaps there. One who could be plying his trade at a higher level, though, is Anibale Fly, winner of a soft ground Fairyhouse bumper in April by 1 ½ lengths from the highly rated Livelovelaugh with 11 lengths back to some very well touted rivals from the Elliott, Mullins and Meade stables. He travelled supremely throughout the contest and picked up easily when asked to close the runner up’s long lead two out down and win comfortably going away. Barry Geraghty obviously has big shoes to fill as the number one McManus jockey this season but there are few, if any, better equipped for the job and this horse could be one for the big Grade 1s over 2 ½ miles plus over hurdles this season.
AS DE MEE
One of my favourite races to follow every season is the EBF Final, run at Sandown on the Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival and this year’s winner, As De Mee, who took the contest from a mark of 13o, should be well worth following over fences from now on. He travelled like a dream before putting the race to bed at the second last from stable mate Great Try (another who could be useful over shorter trips) and it is a measure of the regard he’s held in that Paul Nicholls immediately nominated the Grade 1 at Liverpool he’d won a year earlier with County Hurdle winner, Lac Fontana. He disappointed that day but had also earlier conceded 7lbs to Henry Daly’s useful mare, Tara Mist, at Leicester, travelling most of the way on the bridle that day. The stable will obviously have loads of ammunition for the big races but, even at this stage, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn up for the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day with a big chance.
CATCHING ON
Jonjo O’Neill has a stunning record in the valuable long distance handicaps which punctuate the season and he could still have one with a lot in hand in this progressive seven year old, who looked a future star when sluicing in from a mark of 124 in the Devon National at Exeter. Sent off just 5-2 favourite for the Midlands National, he jumped stickily before departing early then ran a staying on 5th in the Scottish equivalent on ground possibly too firm for him at Ayr in April from a mark of 139, no mean effort for a 7 year old who should now be approaching his peak. Although he has form both left and right handed, he could perhaps be slightly slicker in the latter direction, and Sandown’s London National on Tingle Creek day, would almost guarantee his favoured soft ground before presumably lining up in the Irish National at Fairyhouse in the spring. Long term he has Grand National written all over him if his jumping can be improved. He certainly has the raw talent.
CHAMPAGNE WEST
One of only two horses to retain his place in the list, Philip Hobbs’ seven year old looked like developing into one of the top staying novice chasers this side of the Irish Sea last season, winning comfortably twice at Cheltenham before Christmas then finding a bang in form Ptit Zig too good over the course on New Year’s Day. He looked to be going well enough before falling down the back straight at Sandown in February but unfortunately picked up an injury and was forced to miss the rest of the season. The trainer obviously has faith in him as he immediately nominated the Paddy Power as his first big target of the season and, while he’ll need to be at his best to win off 152 against some improving, lighter weighted rivals, I do think he could be very good and even a Ryanair prospect next March.
FLINTHAM
Last season was obviously a breakthrough season in the career of Mark Bradstock, the story of his Coneygree lighting up the latter months and culminating in his superb Gold Cup victory. I’d love to see the horse come back and do it again this season but, as with all trainers, it’s strength in depth they’re looking for and Flintham, a lightly raced six year old, always held in the highest esteem by connections, could be the next big noise from the stable. His March handicap hurdle victory on heavy ground at Fos Llas from a mark of 130 was undeniably impressive but the feeling was that there is a lot more to come given a fence and a proper test of stamina with another summer at grass to help him grow into his frame. He was following pre Christmas Chepstow and Ascot victories there but subsequently pulled up in Aintree’s 3 mile Grade 1 hurdle in April but that was on ground no good to him and a bit of an afterthought. I expect to see him reappear at somewhere like Plumpton but, after a couple more runs mid winter, it would not surprise me to see him line up in Cheltenham’s RSA Chase with a better chance than his current 33-1 quote implies today.
GRAY HESSION
On the face of it, a Bangor April victory from a mark of 112 and two Southwell victories, each time by a neck, may not appear to warrant inclusion on a list of horses to follow for the coming season but i believe this horse has significant upside and will turn up in November as his trainer’s number one hope for a race he’s done very well in, the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Truth is he hosed up off 112 in a Bangor race where the runner up was on a hat trick and third has won twice since then beat Owen Na View in a race not run to suit before winning a decent summer contest worth £12k to the winner at the same venue a couple of weeks ago. On the second occasion there were 14 lengths back to Owen Na View on 2lbs worse terms so the improvement over the strongly run race was there for all to see and I believe he was given a very tender ride, the sort the jockey excelled in giving to John’s Spirit in his run up to the big race. Possibly best with time between his races, I feel that a trip to Cheltenham in October will preceed his big race target and I wouldn’t back anything else for the former race if he turns up there, This horse has a big future. May just require a bit of work on his jumping but the engine is certainly there.
HELLO GEORGE
After he won at Exeter early in the season, Philip Hobbs declared this six year old as one of his best novice hurdle prospects for the season and, although things didn't turn out that way, it shouldn't be forgotten just how well he did run against more battle hardened rivals right through the season. Sixth in the Ladbroke from a mark of 129, he then finished a staying on fourth in Kempton’s Lanzarote and ended up with another second from 126 at Haydock in the spring. Hobbs had always said that it was as a stayer that he’d be seen at his best and, with his current mark, I'd imagine they'll be eyeing a 2 ½ mile novices’ handicap chase early in the season, given that he came to hand in October last year. If he’s as good as they think, there’s plenty of room to manoeuvre off his current mark in the months ahead and he’s proven that he can run well in big fields so it wouldn't surprise me to see him in something like the old racing Post Chase at Kempton in February, a race the trainer has often done well in, preceded by a tilt at one of Cheltenham’s big mid season 2 ½ mile handicaps.
HOLLIES PEARL
Peter Bowen may not have swept all before him this summer as in previous seasons but he’s proven in the past with the likes of take The Stand that he knows how to handle a good horse and, in this Aintree mares’ bumper winner, he could have one to really make her mark in the mares’ races which have now become a regular feature of the season. She was completing her hat trick in that red hot Liverpool affair but had previously carried her penalty to a facile Chepstow success, travelling up the straight on the bridle before easily despatching a well thought of Hobbs’ rival and I feel the new mares’ race at Cheltenham is a likely long term target although there should be plenty of opportunities on the way given that she appears to be ambivalent to ground conditions.
RUBEN COTTER
Paul Nicholls has revealed a new Modus Operandi over the last couple of seasons, targeting the big Saturday races and accepting that he doesn't have the big spending owners to necessarily compete at all levels of the Cheltenham Festival. He'll doubtless still aim his best horses at March but following his handicappers over the winter could once again prove profitable and this horse, who is just coming to himself, could easily bag a couple of top staying prizes early on. On the Saturday after Cheltenham, he won a consolation race worth £25k to the winner at Kempton from a mark of 32 but that only told half the story as he tanked through the race, jumping superbly and easily brushed his rivals aside in a very competitive race. Next time up in the Topham, he ran an excellent 5th of 30 from a 10lbs higher mark and is still attractively weighted on that form. Perhaps a return to Aintree in November could be on the cards although there are any number of opportunities around for him at the likes of Ascot, Kempton and Sandown as he clearly operates well right handed.
SAPHIR DU RHEU
Paul Nicholls has always believed this horse to be a Gold Cup winner in waiting and, however you view his form, it’s difficult not to think he’s top class. Last season he unseated at Newbury on his fencing debut at the Hennessy meeting, won in facile fashion at Exeter, fell at, won Cheltenham’s Cleeve Hurdle, finished runner up in the World Hurdle then ran away with the Grade 1 at Aintree in the spring in devastating style, cantering throughout then unleashing a powerful kick from the last to win easily. Some have expressed doubts over his stamina for the Gold Cup, but I believe in the trainer who says he’ll stay and his first major target is the Hennessy. He’ll be getting 10lbs from Coneygree in that so has to win to entertain any Gold Cup ambitions but I expect Nicholls to have him wound up for that and he’s top of my list for that race at the moment. A trip to Ireland over Christmas for the Lexus could be on his agenda and I believe he’ll turn up at Cheltenham in march with a much better chance than his current odds of 20-1 in a place suggest.
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