Must read update from Chris Days Ten To Follow this National Hunt season 2014/15

Ten To Follow this National Hunt season 2014/15

Update report and insight from our ten to follow must follow analyst Chris Day @Chrisday100

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Only one of our horses to follow has run since the last update over two weeks ago in what is traditionally a quiet time for horses with aspirations based around the spring festivals.



Sgt Reckless ran, not under National Hunt rules, but in an All Weather flat maiden over 12 furlongs at Lingfield. He won easily from a John Gosden trained colt and 78 rated third (beaten 8 lengths receiving 4lbs). That form isn't shabby but, more importantly, demonstrates that he should have the required toe to compete in a fast run Arkle. The form of his Uttoxeter debut is beginning to stack up too, with the third winning a Towcester novice and fourth finishing only 3 ½ lengths behind subsequent dual Grade 2 winner, Vibrato Valtat.



Henrietta Knight always had her own way of doing things and pioneered light campaigns for her best horses which she appears to have got through to Mick Channon, who apparently takes responsibility for the horse’s conditioning. He continually stresses the importance of avoiding soft ground and clearly believes the horse has the requisite class to go to the top, declaring that he can work with any of the flat horses on the gallops.



It now seems likely that he’ll go to the Arkle and quotes around 25-1 seem perfectly reasonable. He improved out of all recognition at Cheltenham last March when never put into the race with a winning chance and looks sure to be involved at the business end this time round.


Talking of Ante Post betting, another of our horses, Saphir Du Rheu, figures in the market for the RSA Chase, JLT Chase and World Hurdle and I firmly believe that with the NRNB concession with Bet365, he rates a must bet at 10-1 for the latter.


He’s fallen in two novice chases this season, either side of a wildly impressive Exeter victory and is all class but, with doubts about his jumping, I reckon Nicholls will revert to hurdles in Big Bucks’ style, possibly taking in next Saturday’s Cleeve Hurdle on the way.



The World Hurdle market is headed by a horse who ran 2 stone below form last time and everything in the race has a rather large question mark against it whereas Saphir Du Rheu won last season’s Lanzarote effortlessly from an 11lbs higher mark than Tea For Two last Saturday before defeating subsequent Coral Cup and Grade 1 Aintree winner, Whisper conceding 15lbs at Ffos Las.


That earned him a rating of 165 and he’ll be very tough to beat if running to that mark.


Keep a look out for entries on Monday. If he’s in the Cleeve, the 10-1 is likely to vanish and we’ll hopefully be sitting on a value bet come Festival Thursday.