National Hunt season 2014/15 from The Hit&Miss Sports Blog
Ten to Follow
Only a couple of our selections have run since the last update a couple of weeks ago.
Sgt Reckless, our early fancy for the JLT Novices Chase, made his fencing debut over 2 miles at Uttoxeter on Friday. I was there and saw him in the flesh, a big raw boned individual who is certainly built the job but, as a flat bred, it was encouraging to see him jump with bravery and precision and his class shone in the straight as he took up the running and eased home with the rider barely moving on him. Things will get tougher from now but it’s always a plus when their first encounter with the big black fences is positive.
The other selection to run was Taquin Du Seuil, who showed marked improvement from his seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot a few weeks earlier and finished second in the Charlie Hall Chase on Saturday. The pace was only fair and he pulled too hard but seemed to see the trip out well enough from the last to believe he has a good chance of staying the Gold Cup trip. My own feeling is that a faster pace suits animals like him with a high cruising speed and he should be seen in a better light from now on in races like the Betfair Chase, King George and Gold Cup. The stable has had a quiet couple of weeks but will no doubt be firing again in the next few days with Cheltenham’s Open Meeting on the horizon.
Seasonal debuts from Brother Brian at Kempton this afternoon and hopefully Saphir Du Rheu tomorrow at Exeter tomorrow add interest to another enthralling week as the season clicks into top gear.
Ante Post Tip Greatwood Hurdle 16th November
The first big handicap hurdle of the season on Saturday, the William Hill Hurdle, was won in fine style by Sign Of A Victory, trained by Nicky Henderson. That one now heads the market for Cheltenham’s big Sunday feature but he’ll be reassessed from his winning mark of 139 and softer ground, a stiffer track and a mark in the early 150s would put me off plus I believe he’s to be aimed at the Ladbroke Hurdle just before Christmas. The form as it stands is nothing special, the second having been thrashed 16 lengths at Chepstow the time before and the race looked uncompetitive for a 28 grand to the winner pot.
Others at the head of the market include Irving, who I believe great things are expected of this season and he’s certainly well in from his mark in the 140s if what we hear is true, He’s down to reappear at Wincanton this weekend and could well be 4-1 for the Greatwood on Saturday but whether Cheltenham is his track is enough of a question to put me off.
Stablemate Calipto, a Ten to Follow selection, is under consideration from a workable handicap mark but I think the Betfair Hurdle is his race and stablemate Pearl Swan is apparently working the house down on the gallops and could be considered well in off 138 on pieces of his best form but he’s been off the track for a long time, Surely this will be needed against battle hardened horses, though and he could be a Coral Cup type come March.
Obviously there are other dangers but, from what I’ve seen this Autumn, the best handicap hurdle run was at Wetherby on 15th October, where Goodwood Mirage just beat Lightening Rod and Tidal Way in what may have appeared to many to be a driving finish. Lightening Rod came out over the same course and distance on Friday and danced in off top weight, pulling his rider’s arms out until the last and the fifth Secrete Stream, won over an extra half mile in similar fashion on Saturday.
The reason I liked the winner’s performance so much was that he travelled like the winner for the whole race and his jockey, Tony McCoy, had to stand down from the rest of his rides, including a walkover that afternoon such was the pain he was in. I’m not expecting him to go up past 140 and that would give him a lovely weight for the big one.
On the flat he appeared to stay well and he was bought for 380,000 guineas so clearly great things are expected if he’s to come close to recouping that.
In his first season hurdling he won by a head from a 120 rated rival first time out at Kempton before running down the field in 2 small field events at Kempton and Chepstow. Sent off 15-2 for the Fred Winter at the festival, somebody obviously considered his mark fair and the way he travelled at Wetherby indicated that a big field, where he can be switched off and his turn off foot employed to the full.
The weights for the race are out on Wednesday I believe and I’ve taken some early 16-1 in the belief that this not only offers tremendous value but that he will probably start half those odds on the day.
www.oddschecker.com ante-post-racing national-hunt/greatwood-hurdle bet-history goodwood-mirage
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